Against the Odds

How to solve uncertainty? How to change the perception of linearity? I have the feeling my mind is racing all day long figuring out how talk to people about their experiences and that nobody really knows what’s going on. Well, maybe not that extreme but at least to some extent. Almost every day I read or hear people telling others that climate change is not real because past predictions were off the mark. I want to scream at them “It doesn’t fucking matter!”. Predictions like that are bound to fail. It would be the exception if they hit their mark. But only because they were wrong doesn’t mean you are right. That’s not how logic in a complex domain works. I’m honestly a bit mad at myself that it took me so long to actually start thinking and reading about complex systems in general. I have been surrounded by several ones my whole life and didn’t even know the definition half a year ago. And many other people don’t appear to know it either. What is happening? Why are we so fucking unaware of the very nature of our own existence? Are we really so blinded by our naïve believe in our capability of always being rational? How to explain to people that there is no certainty, but it simply doesn’t matter as long as you don’t get busted by extreme events? During the past months I felt like slowly waking up. #wokeaf. No, but truly, how did I not see this before? Fuck. For most of my life I tried to control things. People, situations, life itself. Without ever realizing that any attempt to do so was destined to fail. My head is spinning. I have the feeling I need to take a long walk. Or several long walks just to clear my mind and figure out what to do. I never understood the world and now I know the reason. There was simply no way I ever could. Go figure. Someone told me today that writing about complex systems and uncertainty in regard to climate change might overcomplicate the issue. I think, it’s the only intellectual honest way to write about it. People are fighting about trivial statements and whether this prediction or that forecast might be correct or how strong the correlation between human behaviour and temperature change is. While I’m looking at this from some kind of weird meta-state realizing that nothing of this really matters. This whole debate is mostly about something nobody really understands but is trying to make sense of. Why is it that only very few people seem to notice that? The public argument could be over tomorrow if everybody would just agree with “Yes, we don’t know how strong the human impact on Earth’s climate is and we cannot accurately predict what might happen in the future. But since the odds are extremely high and most of us might be fucked, if we don’t try to change our behaviour, now is a good time doing so”. It’s not that fucking difficult to understand. Interestingly I’m cursing way more whenever I’m writing in English. I have no idea why but it’s a fascinating character trait. Fuck. I’m so bored by all of that. People running in circles without realizing it. And I’m standing right next to it asking myself how to break it. I’m not some kind of transcendent being who is able to see everything clearly. I’m probably just better aware of my own limitations. It’s all so tedious. Instead of arguing about irrelevant details we should figure out how to solve this mess. Maybe I should just stop writing about it. Look for a different topic. My own influence is probably not nearly as high as I would like it to be. I have the feeling I’m a couple of years too late. People don’t really read that much anymore. Or is this a misperception? I might reach more people with different kinds of media. The biggest irony is: there is a manuscript waiting to be finished with a lot of answers which appear to be somewhat certain. I need to rework so much of it, there will be quite a difference between its initial state and afterwards. But I simply cannot keep it in the way it currently is. It would be intellectually dishonest. I tried to look for solutions and more control without realizing how difficult this actually is. The basic idea will still be the same, but now with a very different premise: how to live in a world I don’t understand? Leading with this question I can adjust each chapter accordingly and I am going to include an additional one about randomness and uncertainty. I need to find an easy way to explain this in order to enable people to get the point. If I’m able to do so, maybe I will actually do some good in the end. Road of redemption. It’s raining. In my head. Darkness everywhere. Black coat, black gloves. Turn up the coat’s collar. Walking the walk of my road to redemption. Fade. Black. Fin.

You are a decent human being. Behave accordingly.

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